SINGAPORE: What do you think of when you read the words “urban resilience”? Perhaps you might visualise images of bricks and concrete, or even security features such as concrete barriers and bollards.

You would be right - and wrong at the same time.

These are undoubtedly important in ensuring a city’s ability to withstand physical shocks, but true urban resilience is at its core a state of mind. It reflects how we respond to existential threats and how we deal with broader uncertainty. 

Singapore has historically performed well when it comes to resilience surveys.   

In March, it was ranked the world’s sixth most resilient city in real estate consultancy Savills’ annual global index. The index tracked the resilience of 490 cities, measuring the strength of their economies against several key areas, including their technological base and attractiveness for real estate investors.

In a recent Global Resilience Index by insurance firm FM Global, Singapore was ranked third most resilient in the world, bolstered by its strengths in logistics, urbanisation, political risk and productivity.

These results should come as no surprise to even the most casual of observers.

Singapore’s attractiveness as an economic hub has always hinged upon its robust economy, stable political environment and efficient urban infrastructure, factors that were on display in its response to major crises such as the 2007 global financial crisis and the more recent COVID-19 pandemic.

During both crises, Singapore was able to weather the shocks to its industries, healthcare system and transport infrastructure that came with widespread economic and epidemic contagion.

Yet despite the strength of its economy and urban infrastructure, Singapore continues to face challenges in building up urban resilience to climate change. 

For instance, FM Global’s Global Resilience Index ranks Singapore 56th in its resilience measures for climate change. The index had assessed that Singapore is highly exposed to climate-related risks such as rising temperatures and sea levels. 

Urban heat is a particular challenge for Singapore. In a recently released Savills Heat Resilience Index ranking, Singapore was placed 19th out of 30 global cities for its preparedness to deal with extreme urban heat.

Singapore’s vulnerability to climate change is hardly surprising. Steps are already being taken to strengthen Singapore’s overall resilience to climate change in the form of the government’s Green Plan 2030.

Despite these efforts, the reality is that climate change is a “wicked” policy problem that is difficult to predict and at the same time brings significant disruption across society.

For instance, climate scientists have in recent years realised that the rise of global temperatures and seawater levels have been accelerating at a much faster pace than previously thought. A study published in the Oxford Open Climate Change last year found that global temperatures have risen much more steeply than previously expected.

Unlike economic uncertainty or security threats, the potential threats from climate change are hard to predict and quantify, presenting policymakers with constantly shifting targets and goalposts.

This is unlike economic crises, where economists are frequently able to make fairly accurate projections by assessing financial and economic data. Climate change data tends to be much less stable or predictable. This is an important point to note.

In his seminal work Risk, Profit and Uncertainty, American economist Frank Knight makes an important distinction between “risk” and “uncertainty”. While risk can be measured and quantified, there are no statistical means for measuring or projecting uncertainty.

Perhaps the most famous example of such uncertainty is the “black swan”, which was identified by statistician Nassim Taleb as a highly disruptive event that cannot be predicted ahead of time.

In other words, there are some threats or “risks” that can be predicted with some statistical certainty. In other instances, such as climate change, potential threats are better characterised as “uncertainties” that cannot be predicted or measured.

In light of this knowledge, what can policymakers do to build cities and communities that are more resilient to black swans and uncertainty? Can we truly inoculate ourselves against threats that have yet to be conceived, let alone understood and predicted?

While we may not be able to peer through the fog of uncertainty or hunt down those ever-elusive black swans, cities and communities can most certainly build up the capacities necessary for responding to unanticipated events when they occur.

For instance, despite the frequency and magnitude of earthquakes that it has had to face, Japan remains one of the most earthquake-resilient societies in the world. This is a function of effective policy measures such as clear seismic codes that ensure buildings are designed to be quake-resilient and a strong culture of disaster readiness across Japanese society.

While strengthening urban infrastructure and building up economic resilience are important first steps to building up strong urban resilience, there is also a need to foster the strong community bonds that facilitate trust among neighbours.

Due to their close proximity, neighbours and civic organisations are often our first line of defence during a crisis, even before first responders can reach us.

From an urban governance perspective, these community ties also form the social glue that strengthens neighbourhood identity and gives each community a sense of togetherness and commitment to each other.

These ties can be found in Singapore as well. For instance, a report that was published by the National Volunteer and Philanthropy Centre (NVPC) earlier this year found that around 100 ground-up initiatives were set up during the COVID-19 pandemic. Many of these initiatives facilitated community building and development by offering social support to residents or providing basic essentials such as food to the needy.

Whether with regards to global pandemics, climate change, or any other yet-to-be-conceived threat, building urban resilience is not the sole concern of urban planners and policymakers. It is a state of mind that should infuse all levels of society and empower citizens to contribute to their communities in ways big or small.

As Prime Minister Lawrence Wong had emphasised in his recent National Day Message: “Even as the government does more, we will also reinforce individual and community efforts. We encourage each person to work hard, make full use of the support available, and strive their utmost to excel in their jobs and uplift their families. Those who do well for themselves should pay it forward, and give others a hand. That’s how we keep our society cohesive, resilient and strong”.

Efforts to enhance urban resilience in Singapore will therefore need to include efforts to strengthen both our urban infrastructure and community relations.

Dr Woo Jun Jie is Senior Lecturer at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policydbx 777, National University of Singapore. He is also co-author of the recently published book Building Urban Resilience: Singapore’s Policy Response to Covid-19.

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